The government’s (and parliamentary) fixation with the courts and judicial reforms might be less alarming were there not so much else to be done that is both important and urgent. After a deceptive uptick in the first quarter, the economy is virtually stagnant again. Bank of Italy analysts paint a desolate picture of weak consumption and rising inflation. They have also raised the spectre of credit problems in a country that has so far been spared the worst of the global squeeze. They note that 70% of Italian mortgages are at variable rates, higher than the EU average—and this in a country where real disposable incomes are shrinking. The central bank forecasts a paltry 0.4% growth in GDP this year and next. Its 2008 estimate is in line with the government’s (between zero and 0.5%), but more optimistic than the IMF’s April prediction of 0.3%. The Italian economy is yet again the backmarker in the euro area. Perhaps the most alarming news came on July 10th, when industrial production was reported to have slumped in May, down by 4.1% on a year earlier. Emma Marcegaglia, head of the employers’ lobby, Confindustria, said she was “really worried”. She is right. The engine of the good ship Italia is sputtering; the wind is blowing it towards the rocks; and the captain is busy with other matters.
Appunti di un anonimo italiano
17/7/2008
